Monthly-Sonar
0xb09afa939f351c43cebd90d5ef4a9d62a0d62def
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-738.15
Realised
$-33.06
Win rate
29%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-12-29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 4PM ET
335 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 27°F or below on December 30?
259 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6PM ET
162 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
105 shares @ 95.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-100.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on January 1?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Coventry City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 27°F or below on December 31?
86 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
81 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-40.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 38°F or higher on December 30?
53 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?$11.55Mar 22, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$0.84Feb 17, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 17?$1.00Feb 17, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$1.00Feb 17, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on February 17?$1.00Feb 17, 17:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on February 13?$2.27Feb 16, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 13?$3.03Feb 16, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 13?$1.00Feb 12, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 13?$1.00Feb 12, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on February 12?$1.00Feb 12, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on February 13?$1.00Feb 12, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7PM ET$0.98Feb 11, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6PM ET$1.06Feb 11, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6PM ET$1.08Feb 11, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6PM ET$0.98Feb 11, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6PM ET$0.98Feb 11, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 12?$1.00Feb 11, 22:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5PM ET$1.08Feb 11, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5PM ET$0.98Feb 11, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 12?$1.00Feb 11, 20:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $6.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 9, 13:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 22, 19:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.