Sweet-Picket
0xb0a67248b23523d48f5a1bab3df5834a705efa77
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-17.0K
Realised
$-511.36
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24?
1345 shares @ 44.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 24, 2025$0.00
$-600.00
- ARSENAL FC
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
1176 shares @ 45.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-533.00
- ARSENAL FC
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
1125 shares @ 43.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-485.00
- NO
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?
1073 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-399.30
- NO
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-20?
1058 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025$0.00
$-561.00
- LIVERPOOL
Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)
1020 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 3, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- NO
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25?
977 shares @ 61.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-600.00
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
971 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-154.45
- NO
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-13?
893 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- YES
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03?
847 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 3, 2025$0.00
$-508.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$158.35Jul 9, 02:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?$158.31Jul 9, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?$180.06Jul 9, 01:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico win on 2026-07-05?$180.81Jul 6, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-07-05?$127.71Jul 5, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMSwitzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5$127.72Jul 3, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5$73.10Jul 3, 01:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?$73.20Jul 2, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?$56.39Jul 2, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?$200.00Jan 25, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?$100.00Jan 25, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?$241.00Jan 25, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?$58.30Jan 25, 17:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $254.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 27, 16:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.