Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-14.6K

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 48

NO
Will OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?
4628 shares @ 62.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026
$0.00
$-2.9K
NO
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
2607 shares @ 64.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-1.7K
NO
Will Burnley FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?
2030 shares @ 68.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.4K
NO
Will Le Havre AC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?
1869 shares @ 63.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.2K
NO
Will Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw?
1534 shares @ 59.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025
$0.00
$-916.80
NO
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
1142 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025
$0.00
$-697.19
NO
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?
1022 shares @ 67.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026
$0.00
$-691.81
NO
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?
842 shares @ 62.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-527.72
NO
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?
817 shares @ 66.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025
$0.00
$-542.62
NO
Will FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
747 shares @ 66.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 20, 2025
$0.00
$-496.34

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$2.92Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.57May 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.00May 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.47May 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.52May 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$17.97May 17, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.82May 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.00May 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$22.16May 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$11.49May 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$35.87May 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.65May 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.82May 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$25.88May 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.64Apr 28, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.55Apr 27, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$13.65Apr 26, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.74Apr 24, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.72Apr 23, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.21Apr 22, 00:30 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity34 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk61 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 21
Avg trade size: $421.16
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 22, 15:03 UTC
Last active: Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:21:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data