Musty-Deliberation
0xb0ec9de68162ee59a9a1d78140666bd0868f5c9f
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-66.80
Realised
$2.46
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on July 12?
699 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4?
21 shares @ 93.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 28?
12 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.20
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
11 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
9 shares @ 32.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6?
8 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5?
8 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
7 shares @ 44.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$0.94Jul 13, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$1.06Jul 13, 07:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$1.96Jul 13, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$2.08Jul 13, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.05Jul 13, 06:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.88Jul 13, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.04Jul 13, 06:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.06Jul 13, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.03Jul 13, 06:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.10Jul 13, 06:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.91Jul 13, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.04Jul 13, 06:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$2.49Jul 13, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$2.07Jul 13, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.06Jul 13, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.32Jul 13, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.05Jul 13, 06:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$2.67Jul 13, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$2.07Jul 13, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.07Jul 13, 06:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 10:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 07:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.