Original-Knee
0xb0fcea24160139269e0af107811e33d99d6ece0b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$20.7K
Total PnL
$6.1K
Realised
$5.7K
Win rate
78%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
22238 shares @ 43.1¢·now 41.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$9.2K
$-349.21
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
5841 shares @ 38.4¢·now 55.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$3.2K
$1.0K
- NO
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?
1118 shares @ 77.6¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$172.46
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
6276 shares @ 17.7¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$-74.92
- NO
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
1042 shares @ 89.8¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$937.41
$1.70
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
4170 shares @ 16.1¢·now 17.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$706.89
$34.18
- YES
Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
1776 shares @ 46.9¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$674.90
$-158.09
- YES
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
1388 shares @ 35.3¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$506.73
$17.13
- NO
Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?
905 shares @ 62.0¢·now 45.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$408.42
$-152.10
- NO
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
396 shares @ 81.3¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$330.99
$8.71
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?$18.50Aug 11, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lisa Blunt Rochester vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?$6.70Aug 11, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$10.00Aug 11, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?$13.90Aug 11, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$63.69Aug 11, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?$18.59Aug 11, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?$29.32Aug 11, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$26.23Aug 11, 11:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$39.86Aug 11, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$14.90Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$123.70Aug 11, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$1.3KAug 11, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$18.38Aug 11, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 250B HKD?$4.84Aug 11, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$6.31Aug 11, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$3.47Aug 11, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$263.80Aug 11, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?$20.00Aug 11, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$73.77Aug 11, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?$64.80Aug 11, 08:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
75/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
37 closed markets, 78% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $77.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 06:13 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 14:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.