0xb1063dbcac509e3e35e791959a4ac4d0965e7235
0xb1063dbcac509e3e35e791959a4ac4d0965e7235
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$29.0K
Total PnL
$1.2K
Realised
$14.35
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its March meeting?
17675 shares @ 95.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2023$17.7K
$813.69
- NO
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?
4903 shares @ 95.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2023$4.9K
$234.65
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50 bps after its March meeting?
4511 shares @ 97.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2023$4.5K
$126.32
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its March meeting?
1583 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2023$1.6K
$33.12
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its March meeting?
241 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2023$240.71
$4.81
- YES
Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.3% from January to February 2023?
61 shares @ 84.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2023$61.49
$9.49
- YES
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through June 30, 2023?
7 shares @ 75.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2023$6.66
$1.66
- YES
Will Vladimir Putin remain President of Russia through June 30, 2023?
6 shares @ 86.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2023$5.80
$0.80
- NO
Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023?
47 shares @ 61.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2023$0.00
$-28.89
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.