Damaged-Bifocals
0xb141b29993bf40c9936a3cf5a516533a9368aa3b
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-572.45
Realised
$550.70
Win rate
51%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will Trump say "Patriot" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
200 shares @ 80.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$141.00
$-19.00
- YES
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
200 shares @ 75.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$127.00
$-23.00
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
150 shares @ 83.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$123.75
$-0.75
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 60.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$121.00
$1.00
- YES
Will Wix.com (WIX) beat quarterly earnings?
200 shares @ 64.0¢·now 58.9¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$117.70
$-10.30
- NO
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?
200 shares @ 72.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$116.00
$-28.00
- NO
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
200 shares @ 57.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$115.00
$1.00
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
150 shares @ 74.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$110.25
$-0.75
- NO
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
200 shares @ 68.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$105.00
$-31.00
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 62.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.00
$-24.00
Recent activity
- MERGEIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$3.05Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- MERGEIran full airspace closure by August 31?$100.00Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$70.00Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$0.34Jul 28, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$111.00Jul 28, 16:17 UTC
- MERGEWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$200.00Jul 28, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$23.20Jul 28, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$50.00Jul 28, 16:14 UTC
- MERGEIran leadership change by September 30?$4.61Jul 28, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$1.54Jul 28, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$2.65Jul 28, 16:08 UTC
- MERGEWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$150.00Jul 28, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$30.00Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$64.00Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- MERGENetanyahu out by end of 2026?$1.63Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$1.01Jul 28, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$120.00Jul 28, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by September 30?$40.89Jul 28, 16:04 UTC
- MERGEStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$190.56Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$106.71Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
51% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
45 closed markets, 51% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $46.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.