Wallet digest

active

Activity score

51/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-15.3K

Realised

$503.31

Win rate

53%

45 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
900 shares @ 46.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-415.64
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
900 shares @ 47.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-423.96
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
800 shares @ 35.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-282.13
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
700 shares @ 46.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-327.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
697 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-184.22
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
691 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-213.26
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
600 shares @ 23.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-143.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
600 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-230.52
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
600 shares @ 35.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-212.24
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
600 shares @ 43.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-259.96

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$3.90Jul 2, 13:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$2.14Jul 2, 13:04 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$5.10Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$1.22Jun 22, 00:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$3.98Jun 21, 12:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$2.34Jun 21, 12:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$4.30Jun 21, 12:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$1.95Jun 21, 12:22 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$10.00Jun 21, 12:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$6.56Jun 21, 12:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$10.75Jun 21, 12:08 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$19.57Jun 21, 12:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$3.00Jun 21, 12:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$3.76Jun 21, 11:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$4.57Jun 21, 11:58 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$10.00Jun 21, 11:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$5.30Jun 21, 11:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$11.54Jun 21, 11:40 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$2.78Jun 21, 11:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$2.47Jun 21, 11:38 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

53% win rate over 45 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

45 closed markets, 53% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity68 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry67 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $4.81
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 21, 11:01 UTC
Last active: Jul 2, 13:05 UTC
Win rate sample: 45 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:23:42 UTC·src:Polymarket Data