Steep-Excuse
0xb18e8665a83f03de2e2473079488c14d1f3f42c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
162
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-814.76
Realised
$6.15
Win rate
94%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 162- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
184 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-103.00
- YES
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?
172 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-105.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
160 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
103 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
59 shares @ 82.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-48.71
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
52 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
44 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$2.07May 17, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$2.08May 17, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$5.25May 17, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$5.19May 17, 05:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$2.60May 17, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$0.08May 17, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$2.03May 17, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$1.04May 17, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.09May 17, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$1.68May 17, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.10May 17, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$1.03May 17, 05:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$5.03May 17, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$1.05May 17, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$1.04May 17, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$1.94May 17, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$1.03May 17, 04:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$11.19May 17, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$1.05May 17, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$5.20May 17, 04:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 04:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 05:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.