Celebrated-Con
0xb19a1a4cc825bddc6bdbcb0a4f1e63f5b7cb291d
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$8.42
Total PnL
$-2.18
Realised
$-0.07
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will New Jersey 5s finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball New York Event?
3 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$2.86
$0.86
- NO
Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.16
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 28?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$1.13
$0.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.11
$0.00
- NO
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.09
$0.00
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- YES
Will UCF win the 2025 Big 12 Championship Game?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-0.75
- YES
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $325–350 in 2025?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.59
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 2 be less than 1,750,000?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.56
- YES
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.54
Recent activity
- TRADESELLPutin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?$5.10Jun 27, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?$6.20Jun 27, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$5.89Jun 27, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$7.00Jun 27, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New Jersey 5s finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball New York Event?$1.01Jun 27, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New Jersey 5s finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball New York Event?$1.01Jun 27, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 28?$8.83Jun 27, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 28?$10.00Jun 27, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$10.41Jun 27, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$11.50Jun 27, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zendaya be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?$1.00May 26, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 4?$1.00May 26, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$1.01May 26, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Unchosen" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$1.10May 26, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zendaya be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?$2.99May 4, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Unchosen" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$4.47May 4, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zendaya be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?$4.00May 4, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Unchosen" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$5.60May 4, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 4?$3.98May 4, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$5.54May 4, 03:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $6.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 12:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 27, 08:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.