Wild-Carnation
0xb1fa4243e2ec49add904b9b25e488eef959d8373
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
1
Open notional
$2.69
Total PnL
$1.21
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFartcoin Up or Down on May 14?$1.48May 12, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down on May 10?$0.00May 12, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on May 10?$2.13May 9, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMCardinals vs. Reds$8.46May 9, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYCardinals vs. Reds$4.57Apr 28, 18:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above $94,000 on January 3?$0.00Feb 18, 21:01 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above $3,300 on January 3?$3.65Feb 18, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $94,000 on January 3?$6.80Dec 29, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above $3,300 on January 3?$1.97Dec 28, 00:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Biden pardon Jim Biden?$2.24Dec 18, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Biden pardon Jim Biden?$2.28Dec 14, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMAnnual inflation above 2.4% in October?$23.44Nov 27, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?$0.09Nov 24, 21:40 UTC
- REDEEMTrump wins the election but loses WI, MI, or PA?$0.00Nov 12, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland?$0.09Nov 12, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnnual inflation above 2.4% in October?$18.28Nov 11, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump wins the election but loses WI, MI, or PA?$1.02Oct 30, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump wins the election but loses WI, MI, or PA?$0.40Oct 30, 05:38 UTC
- REDEEMSolana above $150 on September 27?$19.72Oct 1, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana above $150 on September 27?$14.20Sep 26, 11:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $292.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 22:20 UTC
- Last active
- May 12, 20:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.