Ill-Reconsideration-Dame
0xb22a4b091b1cbb35e76b3695785d99f29c099d35
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$20.42
Total PnL
$-119.76
Realised
$4.08
Win rate
8%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 17?
68 shares @ 16.9¢·now 16.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$11.26
$-0.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?
8 shares @ 24.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$8.33
$6.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 17?
33 shares @ 3.4¢·now 2.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.82
$-0.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?
7 shares @ 68.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 9?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 7?
64 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-26.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 3?
54 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 6?
50 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 5?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 17?$6.75Aug 16, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 17?$1.05Aug 16, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 17?$0.10Aug 16, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16?$1.05Aug 16, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?$2.08Aug 16, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 16?$5.08Aug 16, 03:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?$9.58Aug 16, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 17?$5.22Aug 16, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16?$5.22Aug 15, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?$7.15Aug 15, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16?$8.29Aug 15, 18:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?$5.00Aug 15, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$1.07Aug 15, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$2.11Aug 15, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.04Aug 15, 05:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$5.19Aug 15, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$4.06Aug 15, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$1.04Aug 15, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 15?$1.00Aug 15, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 15?$3.19Aug 15, 03:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 06:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 05:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.