0xb240c77261ae698142f54319dadd22637c7da8fc
0xb240c77261ae698142f54319dadd22637c7da8fc
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$138.87
Total PnL
$-80.30
Realised
$-4.84
Win rate
18%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 9?
36 shares @ 57.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$35.59
$15.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on March 9?
30 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$30.05
$0.63
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 9?
20 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$20.05
$0.45
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 9?
13 shares @ 82.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$13.10
$2.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 9?
10 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$10.06
$3.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 9?
10 shares @ 76.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$10.00
$2.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 9?
5 shares @ 89.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$5.02
$0.52
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 9?
5 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$5.00
$0.75
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 9?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$5.00
$0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 9?
5 shares @ 98.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$5.00
$0.08
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?$0.01Mar 12, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?$3.55Mar 12, 04:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?$1.60Mar 11, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?$2.61Mar 11, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 11?$3.91Mar 11, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 11?$4.41Mar 10, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?$6.09Mar 10, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 11?$3.15Mar 10, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 11?$4.91Mar 10, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 11?$3.85Mar 10, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 11?$3.75Mar 10, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 10?$4.96Mar 10, 15:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 10?$9.98Mar 10, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on March 10?$3.09Mar 10, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 11?$3.45Mar 10, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 10?$2.65Mar 10, 14:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 10?$0.18Mar 10, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on March 11?$2.91Mar 10, 14:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 11?$0.04Mar 10, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on March 11?$3.04Mar 10, 14:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 10:36 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 12, 17:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.