Harmful-Ivory
0xb254d24b418eb429628e2eca9f390b8b69c5ee4f
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$185.91
Total PnL
$-455.80
Realised
$-1.90
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
346 shares @ 13.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$46.73
$1.73
- YES
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
400 shares @ 13.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$38.00
$-14.00
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
167 shares @ 12.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.00
$0.00
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?
335 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$19.12
$-0.88
- YES
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
194 shares @ 7.2¢·now 7.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$13.61
$-0.39
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
328 shares @ 7.5¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.61
$-12.89
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
841 shares @ 3.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.51
$-14.48
- YES
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.50
$-9.50
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
2025 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.11
$-15.19
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
1013 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$4.56
$-27.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?$20.00Jun 18, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$38.00Jun 18, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?$15.00Jun 18, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?$10.00Jun 18, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?$25.00Jun 18, 11:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$12.69Jun 18, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$52.00Jun 18, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$18.00Jun 18, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$18.46Jun 18, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$20.00Jun 18, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$10.00Jun 18, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$50.00Jun 18, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$20.00Jun 18, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$14.00Jun 18, 06:58 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?$0.00Jun 18, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?$3.43Jun 18, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?$0.48Jun 18, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?$3.29Jun 18, 04:55 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.17Jun 18, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?$34.12Jun 18, 02:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $39.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 23:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 16:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.