Untrue-Incision
0xb25ec20aac35ac90f0f6cfd3efe08c01fce2d2b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$23.63
Total PnL
$0.27
Realised
$-0.01
Win rate
0%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Instants, an Instagram app be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?
3 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$2.77
$0.03
- NO
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.50
$0.00
- NO
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.50
$0.00
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
2 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$2.46
$0.03
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$1.67
$0.00
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.55
$0.17
- NO
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.49
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$1.43
$0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$1.40
$0.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?
1 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$1.19
$0.02
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$120.00Jul 13, 04:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 26, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $120.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.