Amused-Debtor
0xb2a3623364c33561d8312e1edb79eb941c798510
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$22.7K
Total PnL
$-2.5M
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
742283 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$13.0K
$3.0K
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
454545 shares @ 2.2¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.7K
$-272.27
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
2732245 shares @ 85.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.3M
- YES
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
909091 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.0K
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
647232 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.0K
- YES
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
526316 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.0K
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500000 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.0K
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
403041 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.0K
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
185185 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.0K
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
138111 shares @ 54.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-74.7K
Recent activity
- YIELD$3.36Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$3.51Jul 9, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$4.11Jul 8, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$3.86Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$5.50Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$5.30Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$4.86Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$5.17Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$4.76Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$4.54Jul 1, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$4.60Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$4.61Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$4.45Jun 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$4.53Jun 27, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$4.82Jun 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$4.97Jun 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$4.86Jun 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$5.07Jun 23, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$5.53Jun 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$5.61Jun 21, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
limited
4 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
$209.1K · 68% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $38.3K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 10:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.