Nonstop-Antique
0xb2c4fe566f6b499a321764113fc591644fd743e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$6.4K
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$-63.82
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
25604 shares @ 36.4¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.7K
$-4.6K
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
3811 shares @ 43.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$-341.23
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
1380 shares @ 26.9¢·now 13.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$186.29
$-184.71
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
1897 shares @ 20.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$142.31
$-237.69
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
42 shares @ 36.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$38.96
$23.96
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
607 shares @ 8.1¢·now 2.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$15.78
$-33.22
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
94 shares @ 16.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$7.97
$-7.03
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
38 shares @ 13.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.15
$1.15
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
200 shares @ 8.0¢·now 2.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$5.40
$-10.60
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
258 shares @ 3.1¢·now 1.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.23
$-4.77
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$10.00Aug 5, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$7.00Aug 5, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$7.00Jul 25, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?$16.00Jul 25, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? $5.00Jul 25, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$27.96Jul 25, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$23.00Jul 25, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$16.13Jul 24, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dow say "Win" during earnings call?$7.04Jul 23, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$10.32Jul 22, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$5.17Jul 22, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$15.00Jul 22, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$65.00Jul 22, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Win" during earnings call?$5.06Jul 22, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the earnings call not air?$3.12Jul 22, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Iran" during earnings call?$3.09Jul 22, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Income" 10+ times during earnings call?$5.19Jul 22, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call?$3.11Jul 22, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$15.53Jul 22, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?$49.00Jul 22, 18:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $26.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 00:25 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 16:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.