Beloved-Waffle
0xb3123e9ca70bbe96ad66c204db9891b3333f6092
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
35
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-133.52
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?
1210 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 13?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Katana FDV above $800M one day after launch?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
49 shares @ 91.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-44.94
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 13?
48 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
16 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
Recent activity
- TRADESELLKatana FDV above $150M one day after launch?$17.21Mar 19, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$1.00Mar 18, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$1.52Mar 18, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$1.00Mar 18, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYKatana FDV above $150M one day after launch?$14.00Mar 18, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYKatana FDV above $50M one day after launch?$1.00Mar 18, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLKatana FDV above $300M one day after launch?$0.49Mar 18, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLKatana FDV above $150M one day after launch?$13.22Mar 18, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLKatana FDV above $500M one day after launch?$0.58Mar 18, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLKatana FDV above $200M one day after launch?$1.99Mar 18, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?$1.00Mar 16, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?$17.00Mar 16, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 16?$3.00Mar 16, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?$2.00Mar 16, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?$3.00Mar 16, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?$5.00Mar 16, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?$2.00Mar 16, 05:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on March 15?$7.88Mar 15, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 15?$24.65Mar 15, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYKatana FDV above $150M one day after launch?$18.00Mar 15, 11:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 08:33 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 19, 07:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.