Modest-Compress
0xb3181095adf2ee0be727118b1d1330fb2ffa93ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$9.64
Total PnL
$-12.12
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$4.00
- YES
Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31?
4 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.40
$0.40
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3 shares @ 57.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.24
$-1.22
- YES
Will Park Chan-wook be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
27 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?
15 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
15 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?
9 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Charlie Hunnam (Monster The Ed Gein Story) win Best Actor – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?
9 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Sirat win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.15Mar 17, 18:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.25Mar 17, 18:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.43Mar 17, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.46Mar 2, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?$1.19Mar 2, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31?$4.00Feb 26, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 120 billion views by March 31?$0.42Feb 26, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?$1.00Feb 10, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?$1.00Feb 10, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMSeahawks vs. Patriots$1.45Feb 9, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$1.00Feb 1, 02:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUS government shutdown Saturday?$1.25Feb 1, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeahawks vs. Patriots$1.00Jan 29, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?$0.04Jan 28, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in January 2026?$0.15Jan 28, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?$2.41Jan 28, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31?$0.20Jan 28, 11:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$0.22Jan 28, 11:32 UTC
- REDEEMRams vs. Seahawks$1.45Jan 26, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in January 2026?$1.00Jan 25, 23:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $0.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 21:29 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 18:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.