Wallet digest

active

Activity score

67/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.6K

Realised

$160.73

Win rate

91%

23 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 4?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 8AM ET
428 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026
$0.00
$-36.55
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
302 shares @ 42.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026
$0.00
$-129.44
UP
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
184 shares @ 36.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026
$0.00
$-66.78
UP
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
173 shares @ 65.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-113.12
UP
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 10AM ET
134 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
130 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 4PM ET
128 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026
$0.00
$-3.80
YES
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score
110 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-60.37
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
106 shares @ 53.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026
$0.00
$-56.59

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$1.48Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?$36.36Jun 23, 05:18 UTC
REDEEMWill Norway win on 2026-06-22?$27.66Jun 23, 02:16 UTC
REDEEMNorway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score$16.95Jun 23, 02:12 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?$33.33Jun 23, 01:14 UTC
REDEEMMichael Olise: 1+ assists$83.33Jun 23, 01:06 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-06-22?$11.54Jun 22, 23:29 UTC
TRADEBUYNorway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score$10.12Jun 22, 23:29 UTC
TRADEBUYRiyad Mahrez: 1+ goals$5.10Jun 22, 23:28 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?$4.11Jun 22, 23:27 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.01Jun 22, 20:16 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$1.06Jun 22, 20:13 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$12.53Jun 22, 20:12 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$5.15Jun 22, 20:11 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$6.13Jun 22, 20:10 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$12.51Jun 22, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$3.10Jun 22, 19:50 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$5.09Jun 22, 19:50 UTC
TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$3.33Jun 22, 19:50 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$3.14Jun 22, 19:47 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

49/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

91% win rate over 23 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence77 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk38 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $10.14
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 22, 08:37 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 23 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:45:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data