Determined-Initialise
0xb350f0067e5b30e13a5da711c4f13d9570adb914
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-418.70
Realised
$-7.95
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Over $500K committed to the Bitway public sale?
1501 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
960 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.60
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4?
900 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4?
730 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
730 shares @ 32.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2024$0.00
$-235.60
- NO
Will the US strike Somalia next?
580 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24?
444 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
414 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.00
- KINGS
Kings vs. Pistons
333 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$2.11Apr 1, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$4.00Mar 24, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$0.49Mar 24, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$0.38Mar 24, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 15, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 15, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany strike Iran by March 31?$2.86Mar 15, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey strike Iran by March 31?$0.94Mar 15, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey strike Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 13, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$2.07Mar 13, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?$1.00Mar 10, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany strike Iran by March 31?$4.00Mar 10, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany strike Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 10, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey strike Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 9, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 9, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 9, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$1.00Mar 9, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$2.00Mar 9, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$1.00Mar 9, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$1.39Mar 9, 14:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 31, 03:42 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 19:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.