Tedious-Bean
0xb36b96950b467e10fd4f5504fd659ec9961e7804
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$1.1K
Realised
$2.8K
Win rate
100%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
837 shares @ 51.4¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$296.98
$-133.02
- YES
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
315572 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$157.79
$-157.79
- YES
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
285175 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$142.59
$-142.59
- YES
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?
279474 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$139.74
$-139.74
- YES
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?
239405 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$119.70
$-119.70
- YES
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
67334 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.00
$33.67
- YES
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?
193460 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$96.73
$-96.73
- YES
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
188045 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$94.02
$-94.02
- YES
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?
180704 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$90.35
$-90.35
- YES
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?
149866 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$74.93
$-74.93
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.00Jul 29, 13:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.01Jul 28, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 28, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.91Jul 28, 01:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.03Jul 28, 01:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 27, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 27, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 27, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 27, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 27, 22:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 27, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.01Jul 27, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.01Jul 27, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.01Jul 27, 19:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Jul 27, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.03Jul 27, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.02Jul 27, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.01Jul 27, 15:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
34 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $0.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 23:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.