Simplistic-Eclipse
0xb38568494845447feb295348a0030140b9f9180e
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$156.25
Total PnL
$-29.7K
Realised
$-527.09
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
2083 shares @ 12.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$156.25
$-93.75
- YES
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17647 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-599.99
- YES
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
15516 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.0K
- YES
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?
13478 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.1K
- YES
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?
13252 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-6.9K
- UNITED STATES
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
13178 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-7.1K
- YES
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
4792 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?
4450 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals
4348 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?
3512 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
26/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $751.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.