Unwelcome-Macrame
0xb3a5582039b9ae481d7cf99bfb30ba5f864e5144
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-768.17
Realised
$21.15
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1?
24016 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-24.02
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?
15000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?
15000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?
15000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?
10660 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
8924 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 50 million views on day 2?
1733 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 38 and 42 million views on day 2?
833 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 2?
832 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-11.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$21.68Mar 10, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$21.68Mar 10, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$150.00Mar 10, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$10.00Mar 10, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$6.18Mar 10, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$10.00Mar 10, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$10.00Mar 10, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$186.19Mar 10, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$64.21Mar 10, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$56.97Mar 10, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$3.03Mar 10, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$2.40Mar 10, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$5.00Mar 10, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$33.21Mar 10, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$1.00Mar 10, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$51.89Mar 10, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$34.54Mar 10, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$35.00Mar 10, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$1.00Mar 10, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$1.00Mar 10, 19:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $20.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 11:55 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 10, 20:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.