Guilty-Shoes
0xb406718c2d161c0b49e2e4000598551efa3aaaf1
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$196.00
Total PnL
$-361.96
Realised
$-125.97
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on August 14?
197 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$196.00
$0.69
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 20?
235 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.59
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on July 25?
216 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.38
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 24?
213 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.41
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 11?
194 shares @ 26.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-50.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 4?
138 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.35
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 22?
137 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 4?
135 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 4?
131 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.97
- YES
Will "Prometheus" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
130 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on August 14?$65.69Aug 14, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on August 14?$124.83Aug 14, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on August 14?$4.79Aug 14, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on July 25?$2.54Jul 25, 03:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 11?$228.75Jul 11, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 11?$226.92Jul 10, 19:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5?$182.57Jun 5, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5?$0.26Jun 4, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5?$179.94Jun 4, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 3?$3.75Jun 2, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 31?$2.69May 31, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) close at <$285 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?$16.75May 29, 01:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings?$22.38May 23, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18?$1.82May 18, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 17?$2.83May 16, 18:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 1?$26.76May 16, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for March 7 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?$28.00May 9, 21:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 30?$103.91May 1, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 20?$1.50Apr 19, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of April 13 2026?$139.41Apr 19, 20:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $43.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 20:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 08:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.