Bustling-Cartoon
0xb4119278ce385787c189b9a597f25d88fb978a7c
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$10.92
Total PnL
$-660.41
Realised
$139.79
Win rate
84%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Weed rescheduled by July 31?
228 shares @ 2.6¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.88
$-2.12
- YES
Will July 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
507 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.30
$-2.70
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.36
$0.36
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down on May 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
81 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.40
$-4.60
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.33
$-0.67
- YES
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
52 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.26
$-4.74
- YES
Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
47 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.17
$-0.83
- YES
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.09
$-0.91
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$5.26Jul 26, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$5.30Jul 26, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$5.24Jul 26, 18:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$4.93Jul 26, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$5.16Jul 26, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$7.10Jul 26, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$5.29Jul 26, 18:26 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$0.00Jul 26, 18:25 UTC
- REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - July 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$0.00Jul 26, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$7.77Jul 26, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$5.30Jul 26, 18:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$5.71Jul 26, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$5.22Jul 26, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$0.00Jul 26, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$0.00Jul 26, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$0.00Jul 26, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$5.31Jul 26, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$5.33Jul 26, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET$5.25Jul 26, 18:21 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$0.00Jul 26, 18:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
32 closed markets, 84% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $5.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 04:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 19:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.