Oily-Alternative
0xb4311d0244d19af1c5b8c35e0d75aec10aa50c91
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$4.6K
Total PnL
$-6.3K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?
3000 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.0K
$450.00
- NO
DeepSeek banned in US before April?
703 shares @ 91.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$702.77
$62.78
- NO
DeepSeek R2 released before May?
500 shares @ 61.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025$500.00
$190.50
- NO
Obama divorce in 2025?
307 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$307.26
$49.23
- NO
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July?
80 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$80.00
$42.40
- YES
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?
9963 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.3K
- YES
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?
8000 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-112.00
- YES
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?
6600 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.7K
- YES
Will Trump cut military spending?
2300 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-827.92
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer?
1500 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-252.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?$41.99May 11, 03:40 UTC
- REWARD$1.04May 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?$6.80May 10, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?$0.41May 10, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?$290.80May 10, 15:16 UTC
- REWARD$1.65Mar 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?$459.55Mar 23, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?$0.45Mar 23, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?$16.42Mar 23, 14:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?$0.00Mar 23, 03:22 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?$0.00Mar 23, 03:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?$0.00Mar 23, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin all time high by March 31?$209.93Mar 5, 12:21 UTC
- REWARD$2.11Feb 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin all time high by March 31?$35.98Feb 25, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin all time high by March 31?$5.97Feb 25, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer?$252.64Feb 25, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?$249.25Feb 25, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?$463.58Feb 25, 01:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? $201.46Feb 25, 01:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $236.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 15, 16:51 UTC
- Last active
- May 11, 03:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.