Playful-Refund
0xb43720ecc36b77966651109e2ee5f86c7f9790f0
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$42.04
Total PnL
$-64.16
Realised
$-25.28
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on July 14?
39 shares @ 16.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$38.79
$32.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 14?
4 shares @ 49.6¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.66
$-0.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 15?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.59
$0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C or higher on July 6?
55 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-9.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on July 13?
29 shares @ 17.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.18
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 8?
26 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-9.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on July 13?
26 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 9?
24 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.26
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 7?
23 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 7?
19 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?$2.40Jul 14, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?$2.05Jul 14, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?$1.88Jul 14, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?$1.45Jul 14, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?$4.57Jul 14, 03:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?$9.86Jul 13, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?$10.24Jul 13, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?$4.88Jul 13, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?$0.95Jul 13, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?$0.28Jul 13, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?$6.44Jul 13, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 15?$0.86Jul 13, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 15?$1.52Jul 13, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?$0.75Jul 13, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?$3.71Jul 13, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?$0.39Jul 13, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?$1.70Jul 13, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?$2.80Jul 13, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?$1.40Jul 13, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 11?$11.12Jul 13, 02:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 00:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 04:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.