0xb45341534dd71b773307c9da794f30a8c01abed9
0xb45341534dd71b773307c9da794f30a8c01abed9
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$382.13
Total PnL
$-0.02
Realised
$1.27
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of July 13 2026?
125 shares @ 65.2¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$79.38
$-2.08
- NO
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
125 shares @ 53.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$73.13
$6.88
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
108 shares @ 70.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$72.36
$-3.24
- NO
Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?
78 shares @ 82.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$69.30
$5.09
- YES
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?
100 shares @ 34.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$36.00
$2.00
- NO
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
56 shares @ 16.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.09
$4.18
- NO
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?
10 shares @ 63.1¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.25
$1.94
- NO
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?
8 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$8.04
$0.20
- YES
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?
8 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$8.01
$0.25
- NO
Will Drake Maye win the award for Best Breakthrough Athlete at the 2026 ESPY Awards?
8 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$8.00
$0.16
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$3.15Jul 16, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?$7.77Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?$7.85Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- REWARD$41.32Jul 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$34.00Jul 15, 23:07 UTC
- MERGEIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$40.00Jul 15, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$19.60Jul 15, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$20.00Jul 15, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$4.55Jul 15, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$3.45Jul 15, 18:13 UTC
- MERGEIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$16.00Jul 15, 16:51 UTC
- MERGEWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$17.00Jul 15, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$5.50Jul 15, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$1.26Jul 15, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$86.24Jul 15, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$7.68Jul 15, 16:20 UTC
- MERGEWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$11.00Jul 15, 16:16 UTC
- MERGEWill there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$80.00Jul 15, 16:15 UTC
- MERGEWill Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$85.00Jul 15, 16:14 UTC
- MERGEIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$16.00Jul 15, 16:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $23.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 05:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.