Black-Athletics
0xb477b6a013980f8013cd5b488fd280c2c53f673e
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$-3.7K
Realised
$289.35
Win rate
33%
57 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- NO
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $244 Week of August 17 2026?
231 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$207.69
$-2.31
- YES
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
263 shares @ 79.9¢·now 78.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$205.04
$-4.96
- NO
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $325 Week of August 17 2026?
231 shares @ 91.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$203.08
$-6.92
- NO
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
276 shares @ 76.1¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$197.17
$-12.82
- NO
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of August 17 2026?
198 shares @ 95.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$193.30
$5.05
- YES
Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?
222 shares @ 86.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$185.37
$-5.55
- NO
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of August 17 2026?
233 shares @ 90.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$178.50
$-31.50
- NO
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 in August?
181 shares @ 81.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$147.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?
150 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$134.25
$-0.75
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in August?
141 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$133.56
$8.44
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 Week of August 17 2026?$94.58Aug 17, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 Week of August 17 2026?$1.00Aug 17, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 Week of August 17 2026?$1.00Aug 17, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $178 Week of August 17 2026?$21.70Aug 17, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $178 Week of August 17 2026?$14.69Aug 17, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of August 17 2026?$101.39Aug 17, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of August 17 2026?$47.10Aug 17, 14:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 Week of August 17 2026?$35.80Aug 17, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?$34.56Aug 17, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?$5.73Aug 17, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?$34.56Aug 17, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?$57.28Aug 17, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $184 Week of August 17 2026?$163.33Aug 17, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of August 17 2026?$132.39Aug 17, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of August 17 2026?$82.43Aug 17, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of August 17 2026?$125.63Aug 17, 13:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $184 Week of August 17 2026?$66.02Aug 17, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of August 17 2026?$49.66Aug 17, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of August 17 2026?$202.90Aug 17, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of August 17 2026?$210.50Aug 17, 08:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 57 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
57 closed markets, 33% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $81.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 16:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 15:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 57 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.