Half-Muscle-Season
0xb4b1429dadeba451be845fb7773385299621610a
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$8.32
Total PnL
$-134.28
Realised
$26.65
Win rate
91%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
48 shares @ 12.4¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$5.06
$-0.94
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
130 shares @ 7.4¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$3.26
$-6.40
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
284 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-25.47
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
104 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-7.07
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
56 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.39
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
51 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
46 shares @ 15.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-7.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
44 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-8.40
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
43 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$1.07Jul 23, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$5.29Jul 23, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$3.20Jul 23, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.19Jul 23, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.51Jul 23, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$0.95Jul 23, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.85Jul 23, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.24Jul 23, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$2.12Jul 23, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$0.08Jul 23, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$0.95Jul 23, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.06Jul 23, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$0.00Jul 23, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$3.00Jul 23, 01:30 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$1.87Jul 23, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$2.14Jul 23, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$1.60Jul 23, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$7.97Jul 23, 01:23 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$6.80Jul 23, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.11Jul 23, 01:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 23:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 01:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.