Improbable-Percentage
0xb4b87b64960e01f1325bd0fdb67bf3e82f09abb9
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$15.02
Total PnL
$-1.47
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?
8 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$8.47
$3.47
- YES
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15?
3 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$3.29
$0.79
- YANKEES
Yankees vs. Rays
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2025$2.19
$0.20
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
1 shares @ 93.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.07
$0.07
- NO
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?
49 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US?
47 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYYankees vs. Rays$1.99Aug 21, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBraves vs. Nationals$1.98Aug 21, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liverpool win on 2025-08-15?$2.50Aug 15, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraves vs. Nationals$3.00Aug 13, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMEarthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?$0.00Aug 13, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBraves vs. Mets$5.25Aug 13, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBraves vs. Mets$3.00Aug 12, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in US?$3.00Aug 12, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUY Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?$3.00Aug 12, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel airdrop aid into Gaza?$2.52Aug 8, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYApple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?$5.00Aug 2, 15:40 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 11AM ET$2.27Aug 2, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 11AM ET$1.00Aug 2, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 11AM ET$1.00Aug 2, 15:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?$0.00Aug 2, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET$1.16Aug 2, 01:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?$0.00Aug 2, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 1, 9PM ET$1.00Aug 2, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?$11.11Aug 1, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel airdrop aid into Gaza?$2.00Jul 30, 03:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $4.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 01:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.