Warmhearted-Lookout
0xb4c047b6f7add5fb39a36c387f30aa955f530721
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$29.86
Total PnL
$-12.50
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?
12 shares @ 99.4¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$12.03
$-0.07
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?
6 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.40
$0.00
- NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
5 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?
4 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.91
$0.01
- NO
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
3 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.51
$0.01
- YES
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?
1139 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-6.10
- YES
Will Paulo Portas win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
630 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.26
- YES
Will FL Studio Mobile be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?
235 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Mario Rivera Callejas win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
218 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?
218 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$5.00Jul 21, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?$3.90Jul 21, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?$6.40Jul 20, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?$6.80Jul 17, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.50Jul 17, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?$5.30Jul 17, 02:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?$4.91Jul 1, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$16.62Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June?$38.68Jun 30, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$46.54Jun 30, 22:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June?$5.53Jun 30, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June?$43.07Jun 30, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?$4.90Jun 29, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June?$38.60Jun 29, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$16.50Jun 29, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$25.10Jun 29, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$21.30Jun 29, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June?$42.91Jun 29, 03:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.93Jun 28, 03:33 UTC
- REDEEMCap FDV above $500M one day after launch?$108.27Jun 27, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $26.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 17:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 07:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.