Ancient-Rat
0xb4d895ab7bce831909251fbc71f1e72dd2ffaf3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-858.72
Realised
$-15.75
Win rate
40%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
30000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
6723 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-119.99
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
271 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
125 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
118 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
106 shares @ 69.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-74.16
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
100 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
- WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Western Michigan Broncos
86 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- COLORADO STATE RAMS
Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Rams
82 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS government shutdown Saturday?$0.00Feb 4, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$1.00Feb 3, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?$2.00Feb 3, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS government shutdown Saturday?$2.00Feb 3, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?$4.00Feb 2, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$3.00Feb 2, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$1.00Feb 2, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$3.00Feb 2, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$10.00Feb 2, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$20.00Feb 2, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$10.00Feb 2, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$20.00Feb 2, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$20.00Feb 1, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$20.00Feb 1, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$20.00Feb 1, 19:23 UTC
- REDEEMLightning vs. Blackhawks$38.54Jan 24, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUtah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Rams$50.00Jan 24, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.00Jan 24, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYLightning vs. Blackhawks$25.00Jan 24, 02:12 UTC
- REDEEMDevils vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5$71.43Jan 21, 15:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $11.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 14, 19:33 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 4, 00:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.