Black-Grid
0xb4f484c5f39d07057f7f9722dbcfcbf91c7f665e
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-761.63
Realised
$-455.72
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 3?
92 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-31.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?
77 shares @ 76.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-59.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 3?
67 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-14.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 3?
54 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-40.06
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 3?
53 shares @ 75.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-39.54
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 4?
50 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-40.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on May 15?
38 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-18.82
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 30?
35 shares @ 71.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-25.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on May 14?
31 shares @ 67.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-20.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 4?
29 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-4.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 19?$95.74May 22, 14:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 19?$46.01May 22, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 18?$8.34May 21, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 19?$77.36May 18, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 19?$37.03May 17, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$2.63May 17, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.02May 17, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.02May 17, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.02May 17, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$3.85May 17, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.02May 17, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.02May 17, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$3.85May 17, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.02May 17, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$3.85May 17, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.02May 17, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.02May 17, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.67May 17, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$3.80May 17, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 18?$4.61May 17, 05:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $26.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 11:24 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 14:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.