Hideous-Mochi
0xb4f687248e94a792644d434d4199ed377ca31e17
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-41.5K
Realised
$1.1K
Win rate
50%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?
5976 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-165.31
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
5734 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-98.49
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8AM ET
5512 shares @ 34.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.9K
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - October 31, 6AM ET
5475 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-37.19
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
4624 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-170.00
- MINAUR
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur
4264 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$0.00
$-341.15
- YES
Will the match end in a draw?
4009 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-53.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
3673 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 16?
3047 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-70.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 15?
2944 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-80.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$130.69Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$207.94Jul 10, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$207.99Jul 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$119.35Jul 9, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - July 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$119.43Jul 9, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$116.32Jul 9, 23:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$0.00Jul 4, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$198.07Jul 4, 00:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$36.59Jul 4, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$26.33Jul 4, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$26.15Jul 4, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$26.26Jul 4, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?$8.24Jul 3, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$5.32Jul 3, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$124.96Jul 3, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$74.17Jul 3, 23:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$22.63Jul 3, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$25.88Jul 3, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$71.74May 30, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$174.95Mar 14, 09:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $107.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 22, 05:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.