Wallet digest

active

Activity score

53/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-17.7K

Realised

$-23.26

Win rate

57%

14 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
748 shares @ 77.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-577.69
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
623 shares @ 87.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-545.04
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
603 shares @ 50.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-303.75
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
573 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-46.69
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
572 shares @ 53.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026
$0.00
$-304.38
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
558 shares @ 54.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026
$0.00
$-304.70
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
550 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026
$0.00
$-304.90
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
545 shares @ 55.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026
$0.00
$-305.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
528 shares @ 57.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026
$0.00
$-305.43
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
515 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-46.32

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$13.14Jul 9, 21:17 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$31.09Jul 4, 06:25 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$42.86Jul 4, 01:22 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$30.63Jul 4, 01:00 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$30.88Jul 4, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$56.61Jul 4, 00:40 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$30.99Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$30.89Jul 4, 00:30 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$4.19Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.72Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.32Jun 22, 00:10 UTC
TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$435.23Jun 21, 00:06 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$3.75Jun 20, 00:10 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Jun 19, 21:51 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$0.34Jun 19, 21:50 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.64Jun 19, 21:50 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$52.49Jun 19, 17:50 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$51.45Jun 19, 17:35 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$19.22Jun 19, 17:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$55.92Jun 19, 17:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

57% win rate over 14 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence47 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry74 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk44 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 35
Avg trade size: $58.72
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 19, 13:55 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:17 UTC
Win rate sample: 14 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:09:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data