Hospitable-Mower
0xb50b5d82a4f56b2e7a968548350dd3e117777a3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$2.87
Total PnL
$-93.33
Realised
$-4.70
Win rate
0%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 18?
41 shares @ 8.8¢·now 7.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.87
$-0.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 1?
59 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-7.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 11?
30 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-7.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 1?
29 shares @ 25.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-7.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on August 1?
25 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 10?
22 shares @ 44.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 30?
21 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 6?
15 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 14?
15 shares @ 19.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 14?
15 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 18?$2.92Aug 17, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 18?$0.84Aug 17, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 17?$0.01Aug 17, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 17?$3.92Aug 17, 12:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 16?$18.61Aug 16, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on August 16?$0.04Aug 16, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 16?$7.70Aug 16, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 16?$6.99Aug 16, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on August 16?$6.79Aug 15, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 15?$5.49Aug 15, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 15?$1.49Aug 15, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 15?$33.84Aug 15, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 15?$4.99Aug 15, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?$9.99Aug 15, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 15?$7.39Aug 15, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 15?$0.33Aug 15, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 15?$8.66Aug 15, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 15?$8.56Aug 15, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 15?$4.92Aug 15, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 15?$0.19Aug 15, 13:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 17:25 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 20:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.