Gruesome-Claim
0xb52ab848b99763b8e7d9d4217b625883202a0a58
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$28.37
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-48.88
Win rate
10%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 21?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$9.82
$0.52
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 21?
10 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$9.45
$0.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 22?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$9.10
$-0.20
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?
931 shares @ 85.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-792.46
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?
220 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-88.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?
168 shares @ 17.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14?
135 shares @ 77.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-104.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13?
115 shares @ 87.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?
103 shares @ 60.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-61.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 22?
60 shares @ 90.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-54.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 22?$9.30Aug 21, 02:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 21?$8.35Aug 21, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 21?$9.30Aug 21, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 21?$9.20Aug 20, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 21?$9.10Aug 20, 13:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 18?$5.00Aug 19, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 18?$5.00Aug 19, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 19?$4.58Aug 19, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 18?$5.00Aug 18, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 18?$4.85Aug 18, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 19?$4.70Aug 18, 09:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 18?$4.74Aug 18, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 18?$4.75Aug 18, 05:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 17?$5.00Aug 17, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 17?$10.00Aug 17, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 18?$4.65Aug 17, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 16?$5.00Aug 17, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 18?$4.80Aug 17, 05:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 16?$5.00Aug 17, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 16?$5.00Aug 17, 04:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $6.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 13:09 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 02:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.