Scholarly-Iron
0xb546e34d461b812d2f48730961086defa0d3ca22
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$176.46
Total PnL
$-91.43
Realised
$-12.84
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or below on July 18?
40 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$39.90
$-0.06
- NO
Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain?
54 shares @ 44.1¢·now 63.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$34.30
$10.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 18?
29 shares @ 9.1¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$10.71
$8.04
- NO
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?
60 shares @ 14.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$8.10
$-0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 18?
29 shares @ 9.1¢·now 27.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$7.92
$5.26
- NO
Will Matt Orlando win the 2026 Chandler mayoral election?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.85
$0.46
- NO
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?
24 shares @ 36.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.96
$-1.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 18?
29 shares @ 9.1¢·now 23.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$6.75
$4.08
- NO
Will Nike be the brand of boot worn by the Golden Boot winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10 shares @ 37.5¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.40
$2.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 18?
24 shares @ 9.1¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$6.24
$4.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?$0.23Jul 16, 11:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?$0.31Jul 16, 10:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 18?$2.12Jul 16, 10:55 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 18?$23.55Jul 16, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 18?$23.53Jul 16, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 18?$23.53Jul 16, 10:05 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 18?$29.35Jul 16, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or below on July 18?$39.96Jul 16, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 18?$29.32Jul 16, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C or higher on July 18?$29.32Jul 16, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jeff Weninger win the 2026 Chandler mayoral election?$3.41Jul 16, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jeff Weninger win the 2026 Chandler mayoral election?$4.37Jul 16, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matt Orlando win the 2026 Chandler mayoral election?$7.47Jul 16, 01:56 UTC
- CONVERSIONArizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic Primary Winner$4.00Jul 15, 22:47 UTC
- CONVERSIONWorld Cup: Golden Boot Winner$124.97Jul 15, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$40.14Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$83.23Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$82.88Jul 15, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$40.35Jul 15, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$42.32Jul 15, 20:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $23.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 17:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 11:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.