Helpful-Luck-Menu
0xb57eabe6b58d45ea003ed0c7379d41408b250b91
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$9.94
Total PnL
$-126.34
Realised
$-1.36
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will 0–1 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?
50 shares @ 43.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$2.75
$-18.75
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 5?
9 shares @ 47.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$2.69
$-1.75
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?
3 shares @ 60.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$1.57
$0.03
- NO
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90?
50 shares @ 49.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$1.23
$-23.27
- YES
Will Trump post "Mutilization" on Truth Social this week?
50 shares @ 48.0¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$1.15
$-22.85
- YES
Will anyone say "Oil" during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
50 shares @ 49.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.55
$-23.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 4?
3 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.43
- YES
Will the announcers say "Underdog" during the Paraguay vs France FIFA World Cup Match?
50 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-22.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 4?
50 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.50
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$21.90Jul 5, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$0.69Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.40Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$388.85Jul 5, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another player win the Accuracy Challenge at the 2026 PLL All-Star Skills Competition?$12.21Jul 4, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another player win the Accuracy Challenge at the 2026 PLL All-Star Skills Competition?$14.00Jul 4, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another player win the Accuracy Challenge at the 2026 PLL All-Star Skills Competition?$8.27Jul 4, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 5?$8.15Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 5?$8.50Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?$18.03Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?$2.01Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?$1.54Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?$4.61Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?$1.50Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?$4.56Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?$4.50Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?$1.54Jul 4, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 5?$16.98Jul 4, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 5?$17.25Jul 4, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 6?$11.76Jul 4, 22:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $14.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 22:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.