Alienated-Lily
0xb58d5e244be7fe1834c06cb77097f5447c3da420
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$2.22
Total PnL
$-14.77
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
2 shares @ 89.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$2.22
$0.23
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 16?
216 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16?
153 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16?
138 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$1.00Apr 8, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$1.00Apr 8, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?$1.00Mar 18, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 18, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$1.00Mar 18, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$3.32Mar 18, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$1.00Mar 18, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 18, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 18, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 18, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 18, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A$1.49Mar 17, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?$1.00Mar 16, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?$1.00Mar 16, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.00Mar 16, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?$1.00Mar 16, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 16?$1.00Mar 16, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16?$1.00Mar 16, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$0.00Mar 16, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16?$1.00Mar 16, 08:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $1.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 08:12 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 8, 11:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.