Treasured-Liner-Cheddar
0xb5e83a636f2d77c0c25e2d2abaca753ea204a5f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$314.78
Total PnL
$-444.07
Realised
$6.52
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
63 shares @ 47.9¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.97
$0.96
- MYTH ESPORTS
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty - Game 1 Winner
86 shares @ 46.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$28.88
$-10.78
- YES
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
44 shares @ 45.3¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$26.34
$6.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 24?
55 shares @ 35.2¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$24.10
$4.60
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
48 shares @ 42.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.28
$-0.73
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?
53 shares @ 38.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$15.79
$-4.21
- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
22 shares @ 46.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$13.59
$3.59
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
27 shares @ 37.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$11.89
$1.89
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
29 shares @ 34.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$11.32
$1.32
- YES
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 46.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.57
$5.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 22, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Svitle by September 30?$10.00Jul 22, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$9.93Jul 22, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?$9.90Jul 22, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?$10.20Jul 22, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 22, 20:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 20 2026?$60.00Jul 22, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty - Game 1 Winner$40.73Jul 22, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$10.00Jul 22, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$3.52Jul 22, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.79Jul 22, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$4.70Jul 22, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$10.00Jul 22, 19:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 22?$39.29Jul 22, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$10.00Jul 22, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLGame Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5)$37.40Jul 22, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$1.72Jul 22, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$4.60Jul 22, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$3.68Jul 22, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$2.30Jul 22, 13:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $8.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 19:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 23:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.