Steep-Petitioner
0xb5f8ec43b7f79518600a7c7b485690b97aed8e32
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
160
Open notional
$0.01
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-690.98
Win rate
35%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 160- NO
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?
22 shares @ 65.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.01
$-14.53
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2AM ET
550 shares @ 21.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-116.49
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6AM ET
400 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-236.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 6?
375 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19?
339 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 18?
325 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-16.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 16?
280 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 13?
257 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-16.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 10?
251 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-21.79
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 7PM ET
220 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-105.59
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?$2.24Jul 29, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?$2.50Jul 29, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?$2.65Jul 29, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 29?$0.33Jul 29, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 29?$0.36Jul 29, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$5.97Jul 29, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$32.51Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?$2.20Jul 29, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?$5.76Jul 29, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?$6.75Jul 29, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?$2.06Jul 29, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 29?$9.53Jul 29, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?$4.00Jul 29, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?$5.27Jul 29, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$2.34Jul 29, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$5.37Jul 29, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$2.45Jul 29, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 28?$0.76Jul 28, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 28?$0.30Jul 28, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 28?$1.15Jul 28, 06:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
35% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 13:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 06:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.