Strange-Polish
0xb615c7c44911c948f38eec08d2d133bd0269071b
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-469.59
Realised
$1.91
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11AM ET
2203 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 11?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 2PM ET
1718 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-26.60
- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
1660 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.98
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
1172 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 11AM ET
1038 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 25?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 10?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Trump strikes Iran during Big Game...?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 3PM ET
958 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$7.44Jul 20, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$2.11Jul 20, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$7.24Jul 20, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$1.06Jul 20, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$5.19Jul 11, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$4.13Jul 11, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.23Jul 10, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$2.07Jul 10, 20:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$7.27Jul 10, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$4.13Jul 10, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Belgium?$2.09Jul 10, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$4.13Jul 10, 00:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win on 2026-07-09?$1.62Jul 9, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$1.89Jul 9, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$2.07Jul 9, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$1.03Jul 9, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$1.04Jul 9, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$2.06Jul 9, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$3.70Jul 9, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $3.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 17:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 17:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.