Playful-Ping
0xb61d1b29a9f44acafe1c66a40b71721b44c2b3ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
157
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-743.50
Realised
$32.02
Win rate
87%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 157- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
126 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on January 17?
121 shares @ 82.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-100.06
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
117 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
93 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
93 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on January 5?
90 shares @ 90.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-81.43
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
83 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
63 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
54 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-14.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$1.04May 2, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$1.02May 2, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.05May 2, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.01May 2, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.10May 2, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.01May 2, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.22May 2, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.02May 2, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$0.50May 2, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.03May 2, 07:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on May 2?$1.57May 2, 04:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 2?$1.08May 2, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on May 2?$1.44May 1, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 2?$0.97May 1, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$0.16May 1, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$1.06May 1, 22:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$1.05May 1, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$1.02May 1, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 2?$1.00May 1, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 2?$1.00May 1, 22:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
81/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
60 closed markets, 87% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 21:40 UTC
- Last active
- May 2, 08:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.