Insubstantial-Mantel-Waste
0xb6333b6d2ab29de282883a9503333316aaae51d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$35.31
Total PnL
$37.39
Realised
$143.86
Win rate
1%
80 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?
226 shares @ 0.5¢·now 11.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$25.99
$24.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?
75 shares @ 2.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$7.50
$6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 19?
24 shares @ 8.3¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$1.82
$-0.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 18?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 10?
335 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?
149 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on July 10?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 10?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 10?
81 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 7?
74 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 18?$1.04Aug 17, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?$1.14Aug 17, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?$1.57Aug 17, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 19?$2.09Aug 17, 11:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?$11.63Aug 17, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 24?$2.07Jul 22, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 23?$1.36Jul 22, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 23?$1.55Jul 22, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 22?$1.05Jul 22, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 22?$2.60Jul 20, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?$1.05Jul 20, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?$0.50Jul 20, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in July?$0.22Jul 20, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?$5.14Jul 20, 11:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?$0.05Jul 20, 11:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$15.84Jul 20, 11:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 17?$18.18Jul 20, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 17?$1.05Jul 16, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?$2.09Jul 16, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in July?$2.09Jul 16, 10:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 80 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
80 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 18:37 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 11:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 80 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.