Warm-Elite
0xb646e18097171e662b0926f35fb6a8ef9a840cf9
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-23.4K
Realised
$-578.31
Win rate
26%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 1?
3380 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-83.43
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October 13?
3190 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-150.35
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
2985 shares @ 36.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11AM ET
2933 shares @ 18.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-540.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1PM ET
2573 shares @ 24.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-633.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
2158 shares @ 20.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-443.57
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11AM ET
1974 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 7AM ET
1901 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-182.49
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
1525 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-70.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
1506 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-496.74
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$40.91Jun 20, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$18.71Jun 20, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$8.41Jun 20, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$0.23Jun 20, 22:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$6.90Jun 20, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$25.88Jun 20, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$103.50Jun 20, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$16.21Jun 20, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$12.94Jun 20, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$13.97Jun 20, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$10.35Jun 20, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET$1.86Jun 20, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET$66.00Jun 20, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$53.64Jun 20, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$4.50Jun 20, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$18.00Jun 20, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$18.00Jun 20, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$34.98Jun 20, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$18.00Jun 20, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$6.00Jun 20, 07:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
26% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $21.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 23:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.