Wallet digest

Activity score

15/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-13.6K

Realised

$-74.70

Win rate

5 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
13480 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026
$0.00
$-13.48
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
10160 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-295.63
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
9449 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-233.88
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
6963 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-224.46
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
5510 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-243.99
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
5042 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-324.97
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
4642 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-243.98
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
4256 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-199.53
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
3676 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-288.05
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
2823 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-215.85

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$30.39Jul 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$16.40Jul 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$14.15Jul 19, 01:04 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$16.03Jul 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.78Jul 17, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.76Jul 16, 00:48 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$29.93Jul 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$35.89Jul 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$21.19Jul 13, 01:02 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$31.41Jul 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$76.21Jul 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$124.08Jul 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$102.87Jul 9, 00:48 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$102.26Jul 8, 00:55 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$478.29Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$239.77Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$184.14Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$210.67Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$247.32Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$309.21Jul 2, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

29/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 5 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

review

5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity29 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence17 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry55 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 3, 00:35 UTC
Last active: Jul 21, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 5 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 09:37:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data