Wrong-Downstairs
0xb6995e9761151c68241ef14706e01529d3ce4e20
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$29.13
Total PnL
$-2.06
Realised
$-2.50
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 20?
25 shares @ 58.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$14.75
$0.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?
11 shares @ 55.5¢·now 54.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$5.95
$-0.17
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 20?
6 shares @ 56.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$3.34
$0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 19?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$1.67
$0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 20?
3 shares @ 37.8¢·now 44.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.24
$0.19
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 21?
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.12
$0.04
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 21?
2 shares @ 47.3¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.00
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 19?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.06
$-0.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 20?$14.50Aug 19, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 21?$13.19Aug 19, 21:05 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 20?$20.00Aug 19, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 20?$10.80Aug 19, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 20?$9.40Aug 19, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 21?$5.27Aug 19, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 21?$3.95Aug 19, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 21?$7.77Aug 19, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?$1.10Aug 19, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?$6.16Aug 19, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 20?$3.25Aug 19, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 21?$16.50Aug 19, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 21?$3.90Aug 19, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 21?$5.20Aug 19, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 21?$7.98Aug 19, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?$1.13Aug 19, 19:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 21?$10.47Aug 19, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 20?$5.78Aug 19, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 20?$3.22Aug 19, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 20?$2.85Aug 19, 18:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $5.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 17:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 21:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.